Solar Cycles - July 4, 2016
:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2016 Jul 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity (24 hr Summary) ----------------------------- Solar activity remained very low. A pair of active filaments were observed in SDO AIA 193 imagery beginning at 03/0457 UTC centered near N30W15 and N10W23. However, no CMEs were associated with the events. . Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (04-06 Jul). . Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary) ---------------------------------- The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. . Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 Jul) due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period. . Solar Wind (24 hr Summary) -------------------------- Solar wind parameters were indicative of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field gradually decreased over the summary period from 12 nT to 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly north ranging from +10 nT to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 425 km/s to 475 km/s. Phi angle was negative. . Forecast... Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to be enhanced through day one (04 Jul) due to continued negative polarity CH HSS effects. Waning CH HSS influences are expected on day two (05 Jul) and a return to nominal levels is expected by day three (06 Jul). . Geospace (24 hr Summary) ------------------------ The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CIR and CH HSS activity. . Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul) as the CH HSS influences wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (05-06 Jul) with a return to a nominal solar wind.