Solar Report - July 10th, 2016
:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2016 Jul 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity (24 hr Summary)
---------------------------------------- Solar activity was low due to C-class activity associated with Region 2564 (N09E51, Dai/beta-gamma). The largest event of the period was a C8/2f flare observed at 10/0059 UTC. SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed material movement to the NE of Region 2564 with some absorption. Ground-based radio observatories recorded a Type II radio emission observed at 10/0059 UTC with an average shock velocity of 1435 km/s. At 10/0125 UTC, LASCO C2 imagery detected a slow-moving CME lifting off the NE limb. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 2564 was relatively stable over the period despite being responsible for B-class and C-class activity. Slight decay was observed in Regions 2562 (S05E33, Cao/beta) and 2563 (N19E32, Bxo/beta). . Forecast Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 to R2, Minor-Moderate)throughout the forecast period (11-13 Jul). . Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary)
----------------------------------------------- The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,159 pfu at 10/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. . Forecast The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal levels mid to late on day one (11 Jul) as the Earth transitions between CH HSSs. A return to moderate to high levels is expected on days two and three (12-13 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (11-13 Jul). . Solar Wind (24 hr Summary)
-------------------------------------- Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a polar connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from a maximum of 684 km/s to near 550 km/s. Total field was relatively steady between 3-6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector. . Forecast Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish through the first half of day one (11 Jul). By mid to late on 11 July, another positive polarity CH HSS is expected become geoeffective causing additional enhancement to solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in the 550 km/s to 650 km/s range is expected with the secondary enhancement. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced, but slowly diminish over the next two days (12-13 Jul). . Geospace (24 hr Summary)
--------------------------------------- The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CH HSS conditions. . Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to active to G1-Minor storm levels by mid to late on day one (11 Jul) as another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (12 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (13 Jul) as CH HSS effects diminish.