Solar Report - July 12th, 2016
:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2016 Jul 12 0031 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity (24 hr Summary) ------------------------------ Solar activity was very low. Region 2564 (N09E38, Dao/beta) underwent some decay, primarily in the trailer spots, but was responsible for a B9/Sf flare at 11/2133 UTC, the largest flare of the period. Slight growth was seen in the trailer spot of Region 2563 (N19E19, Bxo/beta). All other regions were relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. . Forecast Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 to R2, Minor-Moderate) throughout the forecast period (12-14 Jul). . Energetic Particle (24 hr Summary) ---------------------------------- The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,450 pfu observed at 11/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. . Forecast The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (12-14 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (12-14 Jul). . Solar Wind (24 hr Summary) -------------------------- Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the waning influence of a CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was steady between 4-8 nT, while Bz fluctuated between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from around 550 km/s at the beginning of the period to near 450 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector. . Forecast Solar wind parameters are expected to undergo a minor enhancement on day one (12 Jul) as a trans-equatorial CH HSS begins to influence the near-Earth environment. Days two and three (13-14 Jul) are likely to see a further enhancement from the a larger, northern, positive polarity coronal hole. . Geospace (24 hr Summary) The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CH HSS conditions. . Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active conditions on days one through three (12-14 Jul) due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.